The Federation of Agriculture of Rio Grande do Sul (Farsul), a representative agribusiness organization, has indicated that the stress in Brazil’s rural credit sector is expected to persist until at least mid-2026. A possible stabilization may occur only after May, assuming economic conditions normalize and no further shocks arise.
According to the analysis, the “stressed” loan portfolio—which includes past-due debts, defaults, and renegotiated loans—grew rapidly in 2025, representing around 15% of all active rural credit, signaling significant financial deterioration among producers.
Stressed rural credit operations jumped from R$ 72.2 billion in July 2024 to R$ 123.6 billion in November 2025, according to the latest data from the Central Bank.
The main factor driving this situation is high interest rates, which—amid inflationary pressures and fiscal imbalances—make production financing more expensive, increasing debt costs and hampering the sector’s economic recovery.
Additionally, a significant portion of the renegotiations were carried out using funds subject to market interest rates, which may actually increase outstanding balances instead of easing financial pressure.
Given this context, the organization advocates for legislative reforms and more effective public policies aimed at restructuring rural debt, reducing dependence on high-cost credit, and mitigating the risk of debt accumulation and negative impacts on agribusiness in the coming months.